President Trump maintains a narrow edge in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs.

Mr. Trump leads Joseph R. Biden Jr. in Texas by 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, the survey found, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The survey of 802 likely voters was mostly conducted before the final presidential debate on Thursday.

In the Senate race, the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, holds a larger lead, 48-38, over the Democrat, M.J. Hegar.



New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Texas

Other/Undecided

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 802 likely voters from Oct. 20-25, 2020.


Polls have shown a competitive race in Texas all cycle, but the Biden campaign has made only limited efforts to contest the state.

The Republican grip on Texas has deteriorated rapidly during the Trump era, as a Democratic breakthrough in the suburbs has endangered more than one-third of the state’s Republican congressional delegation and Republican control of the state House.

In these districts, Republicans face a combination of rapid demographic change and previously unthinkable Democratic gains among white college-educated voters. Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by just two points among white college graduates in these districts, even though they say they backed Mr. Trump by 24 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The survey suggested that Mr. Biden’s support among Hispanic voters, 57 percent to 34 percent, is weaker than Mrs. Clinton’s was four years ago. The finding broadly tracks with national surveys, which have shown Mr. Trump improving among Hispanic voters compared with his 2016 standing.

In 2018, Times/Siena surveys generally underestimated turnout by Hispanics and their support for Democrats in Texas. So far this cycle, polls have varied widely on Mr. Trump’s standing among the group in Texas, with a recent Quinnipiac survey showing Mr. Biden ahead by just eight points, 51-43, while a Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler Texas survey showed him ahead by a far wider margin, 67-20.

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